Monday, December 15, 2008

Top Draft Picks (1-10)

In this segment our illustrious Washington DC GM will break down what he believes to be the best players drafted at each slot in the first 9 seasons of Summer of '49. This will be an ongoing and fun project. For at least the first round and supplemental picks I will go through each of the 9 seasons picks at that slot and choose the best based on talent, bonus money will be considered but mostly just as a tiebreaker. IOW Johnny Ballplayer will not be discounted because he required 8 million to sign in the 2nd round. For later rounds I welcome GM's to trade chat me with their later round steals as I will not be going much past the 2nd round but would like to include some of the great late round draft picks.

Best 1st overall -
Walt Brown
Honolulu
Dashboard Hula Dolls
Age: 23B/T: R/R
Born: Dunmore, WV
Position(s): 2B/CF
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Drafted: 2007: jweatherman
ML Debut: 2009
Draft Age: 20
From: Polk Community College (So.)
Bonus: 4.0 m
ML seasons - 1
2010 salary - 343K
2009 stats: Honolulu (ML) - .337, .415, .685, 132 R, 10 3B, 41 HR, 118 RBI, 56 SB
Career stats: Honolulu (ML) - 244 gms, .318, .394, .660, 231 runs, 19 3B, 72 HR, 206 RBI, 101 SB
Awards: 2009 AL ROY, All Star, Silver Slugger (2B)

The first pick in 2001 did not sign but thankfully every other top overall pick has. I felt Brown was clearly the best of the bunch. Brown made his ML debut in 2009 and won ROY to go along with a silver slugger at 2B. Brown possesses 100 speed and grades out to 90's or close to it in all hitting categories. An excellent second baseman Brown may also eventually be a passable center fielder.

Best 2nd overall -
Haywood Twitchell
Washington D.C.
42's
Age: 23B/T: L/R
Born: Macksville, KS
Position(s): 2B/CIF/OF/DH
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Drafted: 2007: schuyler101
ML Debut: 2010
Draft Age: 20
From: Barton County Community College (So.)
Bonus: 3.71 m
ML seasons - 0
2010 salary - 295K
2009 stats: Washington D.C (AA) - .375, .438, .788, 138 R, 58 2B, 16 3B, 36 HR, 128 RBI, 15 SB
Career stats: Washington D.C. (Minors) - 291 games, .378, .457, .783, 341 runs, 157 2B, 29 3B, 92 HR, 338 RBI, 41 SB
Awards:
2008 - (HiA) NL All Star, Silver Slugger (2B)
2009 - (AA) NL ROY, All Star, Silver Slugger (2B)

Phil Murphy and Mule Floyd each have a very legitimate claim to this spot but this author chooses Twitchell because he is similar offensively to both but plays a more valuable position on defense, 2B as opposed to COF/1B. The season 7 draft was heralded at the time as very deep and has lived up to the hype, we expect this not to be the last selection from season 7. And despite the accusations of hometown bias, that's my pick and I'm sticking to it!

Best 3rd overall

Fausto Rivera
New Orleans
Pelicans
Age: 25B/T: R/R
Born: Richburg, SC
Position(s): P (SP1)
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Drafted: 2007: rds_lsu

ML Debut: 2011?

Draft Age: 22

From: UCF (Sr.)

Bonus: 3.82 m

ML seasons - 0

2010 salary - 54K

2009 stats: New Orleans (AAA) - 5-2, 87 IP, 3.62 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 70 K

Career stats: New Orleans (Minors) - 81 games, 41-7, 439 IP, 424K, 2.62 ERA, 1.13 WHIP
Awards:
2008 - (HiA) NL All Star

Maybe I should just rename this post "Season 7 draft recap". What's telling about Rivera is that despite the fact that I had the 2nd pick in season 7, I am regretful not only that Brown didn't somehow slip to me, but am now kicking myself for not taking Rivera 2nd overall. So to recap, the owner who got the best 2nd overall pick ever Haywood Twitchell (me), wishes he had picked someone else.

Rivera will be very good and rds has done a good job holding him back, his ratings are still shooting up and he has some development left, when he hits his projecteds (and he should) he will take the league by storm. Of course there is the matter of that health rating...

Erick Mullin & DaRond Neal both would have been worthy selections but I have to go with the top notch starter in this case.

Best 4th overall

Brant Lowry
Detroit
Domination
Age: 24B/T: S/R
Born: Caledonia, MS
Position(s): P (LRA)
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Drafted: 2004: wolverine76
ML Debut: Cup of coffee in '08, up for good in '09
Draft Age: 18
From: New Hope HS
Bonus: 4.9 m; 2010 salary: 343K

ML seasons - 1
2009 stats: Detroit (ML) - 12-2, 6/6 svs., 118.2 IP, 2.43 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 123 K
Career stats: Detroit (ML) - 109 games, 20-5, 8/9 svs., 217.2 IP, 213 K, 3.06 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
Awards: 2008 - (AAA) AL All Star, Cy Young

In the early years there were some dreadful 4th overall picks, recently Chris Costello (S5) and Kennie Moss (S7) weren't bad but this came down to 2 players, Lowry and Miguel Diaz. Diaz will be an absolute masher in the outfield and it was hard not to pick him. Lowry is a reliever and typically they don't have as much value but he is different. Lowry is one of those special brand of uber-relievers capable of qualifying for ERA titles because they can pitch 160+ innings a season. Petec makes good use of the indispensable Lowry.

Best 5th overall

Mule Black
Anaheim
Bombers
Age: 24B/T: S/R
Born: Jonesboro, AR
Position(s): P (SP2)
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Drafted: 2007: nr6229
ML Debut: Mid-'08
Draft Age: 21
From: Univ. of Missouri - Columbia (Jr.)
Bonus: 10.44 m; 2010 salary: 360K

ML seasons - 2

2009 stats: Anaheim (ML) - 9-10, 166 IP, 4.01 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 153 K
Career stats: Anaheim (ML) - 61 games, 21-20, 386.2 IP, 365 K, 3.49 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Season 7 draft class once again! This time it's Mule Black, another pitching stud who dropped to the 5th pick out of signability concerns. Wisely, nr6229 ignored those concerns and opened up the checkbook for Black. I believe Black was the 1st player from that class to make the majors and rightly so.

Ron Perry (S3) has had a very solid first 3.5 seasons and is a front of the rotation stud, but his ratings can't match the Mule, who will have an outstanding career as it is and is still improving!

Finally Malcolm Adams (S4) would have been a fine choice as well


Best 6th overall

Jeromy Thompson
Richmond
Rebels
Age: 21B/T: R/R
Born: Bayville, NJ
Position(s): P (SP2)
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Drafted: 2007: steelerstime
ML Debut: 2012?
Draft Age: 18
From: Long Branch HS
Bonus: 7.384 m; 2010 salary: 327K

ML seasons - 0

2009 stats: Richmond (LoA) - 20-2, 4 CG, 208.2 IP, 2.63 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 229 K's,
Career stats: Richmond (Minors) - 87 games, 56-8, 13 CG, 613 IP, 647 K, 2.41 ERA, 1.04 WHIP
Awards: 2008 - (LoA) AL All Star, ROY
2009 - (LoA) AL All Star, Cy Young

With a gun held to my head I went with another season 7 pick, Jeremy Thompson, but I love Dave Philips (S9) and his potential, particularly that gold glove. Kane Vernon (S6) was also in the running but it's gotta be Thompson, who tears up the low minors while being brought along slowly and patiently by steelerstime.

Honorable Mention - Jose Uribe (S2). Jose we hardly knew ya! Drafted by one-and-done juiceinhood in season 2 he was signed a few weeks later, never promoted beyond rookie ball and then retired in season 4. Such is the mystery of him that his career stats appear to be lost to the catacombs of history, never to be known again. In all likelihood he would have been an absolutely stellar RF today and maybe the top of this list had he just been promoted to Lo-A at the end of season 3.

Best 7th overall

Jose Johnson
Washington D.C.
42's
Age: 24B/T: L/L
Born: Clarksville, TN
Position(s): P (SP4)
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Drafted: 2006: schuyler101
ML Debut: 2010
Draft Age: 20
From: Volunteer State Community College (So.)
Bonus: 3.44 m
2010 salary: 295K
ML seasons - 0
2009 stats: Washington D.C (AAA) - 17-2, 177.2 IP, 2.08 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 212 K's
Career stats: Washington D.C (Minors) - 114 games, 69-6, 646 IP, 655 K, 2.45 ERA, 1.13 WHIP
Awards: 2007 - (AA) NL All Star, Cy Young, ROY
2008 - (AA) NL All Star, Cy Young
2009 - (AAA) NL All Star, Cy Young, ROY

Season 1 to 9 this has to be the best draft slot so far. No busts, no unsigned picks and 9 very good players, some franchise guys in the mix to boot. Overall there teams have gotten incredible value at this position. I'd wish I could say there was a player that was a close 2nd but that would be a lie, there were about 5 of them. In the end I went with Johnson because elite pitchers are such a commodity in this world and he's one of them with ratings that are still inching up. Johnson will anchor the 42's rotation for the next 10 seasons and may win a Cy Young or 2, he's won it in his last 3 seasons of minor league ball.


Best 8th overall

Kordell Forbes
Pawtucket
Privateers
Age: 20B/T: L/L
Born: Washington, DC
Position(s): P (SP3)
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Drafted: 2008: harkov
ML Debut: 2010
Draft Age: 18
From: The Calverton HS
Bonus: 5.14 m; 2010 salary: 38K
2009 stats: Pawtucket (HiA/LoA) - 7-4, 139.2 IP, 2.19 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 115 K's
Career stats: Pawtucket (Minors) - 64 games, 22-12, 329 IP, 287 K, 2.92 ERA, 1.31 WHIP

There were 4 elite players at this slot: Forbes, David Polanco, Dan Franco, & Fausto Sanchez. Polanco and Franco are franchise players and all stars, Sanchez is a future star himself. It was hard to take Forbes over Polanco in particular, a classic now vs. future gambit that steelerstime and I had debated previously in the world chat. It looks to me that Forbes will hit the projections I have for him or come very close, and if he does he is superior to Polanco in virtually every way. His makeup may result in an earlier decline in ratings but I would trade him straight up for Polanco. Advantage Forbes. The Dominator will not be pleased.

So well done harkov, but before we give you him much credit for this brilliant pick let's point out that he also has the worst 8th pick ever, Glenn Gragg. Gragg has improved very little since being drafted 8th overall with an 80+ makeup, very curious, maybe harkov can shed some light on this. (To be fair to harkov to my knowledge this was before we had the ability to rank our draft board, correct me if I'm wrong)

Best 9th overall

Ernie Alexander
Anaheim
Bombers
Age: 22B/T: L/L
Born: Butte, MT
Position(s): P (SP3)
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Drafted: 2006: nr6229
ML Debut: 2009
Draft Age: 18
From: Powell County HS
Bonus: 3.25 m; 2010 salary: 343K
2009 stats: Anaheim (ML) - 8-6, 24 GS, 129 IP, 4.19 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 102 K's
Career stats: Anaheim (ML) - 44 games, 19-10, 247 IP, 196 K, 3.71 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
Awards: 2008 - (AA) NL All Star

There were a number of worthy nominees for this slot, Jake Roberts "The Snake" and Giomar James both are excellent hitting 2B/CF. Yamid Encarnacion has been a steady run producer for several big league seasons and the soft tossing Bruce Schofield has great potential. But it's Alexander, the front of the rotation stud, who gets the nod. Anaheim went pitching heavy with it's top draft picks for a few seasons and that strategy may turn out to be brilliant in hindsight.

Best 10th overall

Mendy Griffin
Washington D.C.
42's
Age: 26B/T: R/R
Born: Orosi, CA
Position(s): P (LRA)
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Drafted: 2002: anux
ML Debut: 2008
Draft Age: 18
From: Washingtoin HS
Bonus: 3.16m; 2010 salary: 295K
2009 stats: Washington D.C (ML) - 17-6, 3-3 svs. 170.1 IP, 2.96 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 150 K's

Career stats: Washington D.C. (ML) - 187 games, 42-10, 9/10 saves, 435 IP, 349 K, 2.81 ERA, 1.17 WHIP

Awards: 2006 - (AAA) NL All Star, Cy Young
2007 - (AAA) NL All Star, Cy Young
2008 - (ML) NL ROY

Ryan Nelson has 98 career wins and would have been a worth choice as would have future elite gloveman Wilfredo Mesa. Mendy Griffin is head and shoulders above both. I inherited him from the previous owner who had used him as a 1 inning closer and expanded his role to long relief, where his DURA/STAM combo enables him to pitch 160+ innings a season, I'll take those 160 quality IP in the 5th thru 7th innings versus 60 in the 9th any day. Griffin had 59 wins in his last 2 minor league seasons, 32 in his first 2 ML seasons and a little past the midpoint of his 3rd ML season has 9 more wins. He is already the 42's career leader in wins and today leads one of the best pitching staffs in the majors.